Dispatches #4: Brussels - Intergenerational social cohesion is a strategic foundation for a powerful EU future

Intergenerational solidarity as a key principle - domestically and globally, on security and competitiveness - is a positive northstar narrative that could address head-on current challenges

This is a long overdue piece of two halves from my trip to Brussels exactly a month ago:

PART 1: Three headline conclusions and some reflections

1. There was universal agreement that a profoundly disruptive, strategic shift in action and posture is urgently needed in Europe - if done right, the Intergenerational Fairness (IGF) Strategy could be the catalyst to anchor intergenerational solidarity as a key principle for an alternative powerful - and hopeful - vision for the EU and the world

2. The IGF Strategy promises to unlock more democratic institutions and effective policies that also respond to the urgent realities of the day - especially defence and competitiveness.

3. This inflexion can happen rapidly if the IGF Strategy can unleash and unlock the transformative potential of existing innovative ideas, capability and demonstrators/pilots distributed across the EU Member States and EU institutions - but the ideas need to be crunchy and specific

Regardless of where people sit in the system and their sense of agency, all unanimously felt "something needs to be done - cannot continue BAU - need to do something different". The demographic and security realities have come to a rupture point where there is an undeniable need to reframe, react and do things differently.

The question facing Europe is whether to follow the Trumpian zero-sum and divisive strategy that promises to deliver the profound change to the status quo that many are calling for globally, by taking a chainsaw to the institutions that promise to address inequality today and addresses long-term futures.

Or, if this can be a moment for developing a positive European counternarrative based on hope and opportunity by providing a pragmatic alternative frame that can radically engage disaffected citizens and generations - young and old - in a vision of the future that is more collective.

We are in a world where representative democracy - political parties, voting, communications - is being out-manouevred by political entrepreneurs who are gaining returns from the existing disaffection with the status quo by amplifying conflict and division between people. This includes tapping into a sense of fear around loss of wellbeing and security, the harsh costs of the pandemic, declining life expectancy, emerging technology impact on jobs and decade of austerity post the global financial crisis. The scapegoating of “others” - whether using axes of Age (fomenting claims around wokism and pitting boomer versus snowflake), Sexuality/Gender (inspiring gender wars, misogyny and homophobia, attacking reproductive rights) or Ethnicity/Nationality (inspiring nativist responses) - leads to a divisive and fragmented politics at a time when cohesion and empathy is needed.

Europe needs a narrative that can both respond to the moment as a North Star alternative to fomenting fear and division and that also shows a plausible way HOW to do things in a way that is relevant to the issues and concerns of the day. Do we move away from supporting women’s rights, advocating for free-trade, supporting our partners abroad, championing green transitions? Or do we acknowledge that intergenerational social cohesion is a critical strategic foundation for a powerful and attractive EU future. Supporting intergenerational solidarity as a key principle and standing for the interests of both current and next generations together - domestically and globally - is a positive northstar narrative that could address head-on the drivers of conflict and hopelessness in the current political status quo.

It requires looking at the longer-term horizons of what young people are interested in, as well as measures to unlock the generational politics of navigating upcoming transitions. Canada, the EU and the UK are urgently exploring an effective collective response to the rapid swing to authoritarianism beyond “We are against the fascists” and then reducing areas of conflict, by ceding ground on gender, DEI, systemic approaches - all of which we know not only affect people now but also store up huge challenges for the next generations. Acting for the “wellbeing of all generations/solidarity between current and future generations” is a positive formulation narrative that could unite current leaders in Europe, UK, Canada - but also further beyond like Brazil - in their efforts to develop an effective narrative.

The IGF Strategy needs to show it can contribute substantively to the key dominant concerns around Defence and Competitiveness. But it can do so in a way that builds hope and intergenerational solidarity across generations. Since it promises to help navigate the distributional concerns that are the brakes on unlocking action on geopolitical, climate, demography, technology transitions ahead. Building examples of effective governance and meaningful engagement across generations, that builds lasting political support for big bets, big loans, and also lays framework for lasting responses to transitions, whether in climate, jobs, biodiversity, aid and partnerships. In particular: Defence/Security/Resilience/Prevention - ensure a strong focus on this in the strategy. There is a growing awareness of the broken social contract with young people and the need to build a ‘truly shared future’. We are at a moment where the continent needs a strong position on defence and competitiveness, and yet Gen Z men are particularly vulnerable to political polarisation and misinformation. Intergenerational social cohesion around a collectively held desired future is not a nice to have - it is an existential security capability.

PART 2: Four reflections on developing the IGF strategy

1. IGF Strategy can add value on Narrative, Themes and instruments - but it must underline this is for:

   1. All generations.

   2. Domestic and foreign policy.

   3. Not about establishing new tick-box exercise but instead about unleashing existing ideas and expertise in service of unlocking stuck issues through: assessments that pose questions, governance and financial tools.

2. The Narrative is critical and needs to deeply connect IGF to the moment we are in:

   1. About unleashing, unlocking and hope at a time of rupture and overwhelm. 2025 is a window of opportunity to reshape narrative of how we reimagine democracy and governance fit for the 21st Century and helps us navigate the symptoms of the old order that are driving towards autocracy - Intergenerational solidarity acts as a key principle for an alternative - and hopeful - vision for the EU and the world.

   2. Clearly communicate that IGF is NOT about new processes and issues - we must address fears that it is a framing that is tokenistic, additional red-tape or superficial nice-to-have. An IGF discussion about the how (upstream, systemic, generational view of policy impacts) could form an opportunity to refine the European approach to Better Regulation in balancing economic/social/environmental trade-offs (plus security/governance) . In order to build a future-oriented, systemic approach to decision-making and sustainability that fits the context and needs of these upcoming decades

   3. Directly connect to key priorities on defence and resilience, and Competitiveness, locking in European values, as a collective democracy demonstrator.

3. Quickly move to having substantive conversation about thematic areas, as tangible as possible. What does it mean we do differently (within EU competency)? Which constituencies might find it of interest?

   1. Underline this is an international not just domestic agenda - absolutely critical for defence and international partnerships. Lots of uncertainty remains on EU member states decisions given their national level redeployment of resources in their security/defence reviews from aid to security - do they keep aid high in order to backfill memberstates or whether trend is repeated at the EU level?

   2. Helping navigate the demographic cliff through addressing human capital, and building solidarity across with conversation on silver transitions/economy and lifelong learning and jobs, innovation.

   3. Others:

      1. Emerging Tech/Climate - New industrial policy

      2. Housing DG

   4. Potential for reframing and keeping social and gender rights still in view as criticla components, ie prevent backsliding.

   5. Think through regional and local engagement - Infrastructure, Regio, cities, European Parliamentarians, Ministers of the Future network

4. Instruments/Practical considerations - How unlock or unleash the potential in practice? Interesting to note that much is about connecting existing work, rather than new work:

   1. Budget Although the budget is critical, IGF appears not to be included in Commission budget guidance principles even though effectively lays out next 10 years. Making it real on budget: requires engaging on Commission Guidance, working with EIB/Parliament, examining loans (e.g. ReArm 30 year loans repayable in 2059, exploring interest in IGF assessments, exploring how might invest differently with different discount rates or future gens/youth perspectices (e.g. Erasmus), Note - early insights from citizens consultations about the budget show REAL PREOCCUPATION with the long-term).

   2. Governance mechanisms Youth Sounding Board/Business consultations - connecting true participatory future-oriented conversations and planning to decision-making and investment decisions.

   3. Partnerships What kind of new partnerships with other stakeholders is possible (e.g. universities, businesses)?

   4. Igf Assessment Assessment is about asking the right question upstream - not about reformulating a tickbox exercise. The key point is that it is not possible to ever achieve a technical answer to the question of intergenerational fairness - but you can ask the questions that can build a political lasting answer for increasing fairness and remedying unfairness that enables action.

   5. There are lots more possible changes - from treaty Change, to connecting with Council and Parliament, and wider business, academia and civil society across Europe - that are all promising avenues to explore later. Special focus should be spend connecting national Parliamentary interest to European Parliament work on this agenda