Dispatches #1: Portugal and Intergenerational Fairness
The Government falls again. And why Portugal is an interesting country to examine around democracy and generational dynamics
Democracy and generational dynamics in Portugal - Watch Video
Overview
This video outlines key insights regarding Portugal's political landscape, demographic challenges, and innovative governance approaches. It highlights the implications of these factors on democracy and intergenerational fairness.
Context
Portugal’s government has fallen three times in as many years. It's political and demographic dynamics present a compelling case study on the challenges and opportunities facing representative democracies today. The interplay of intergenerational tensions, innovative governance, and the rise of authoritarian sentiments mean Portugal is a good example of many issues facing many aging democracies.
Four reasons Portugal is an interesting case-study
As a recent democratic pioneer:
Portugal underwent the Carnation Revolution on April 25, 1974, marking its transition to democracy as part of the third wave of democratization in the 1970s and 1980s.
The country joined the European Union, which contributed to rising living standards over the past 50 years.
As a keen governance innovator with mixed results:
Portugal has implemented several innovative policies, including:
An evidence-based approach to drug policy.
Leadership in green energy transition.
Effective management of migration and social cohesion.
Participatory budgeting initiatives.
Despite these innovations, there has been a lack of cohesive integration across different policy areas, leading to incremental rather than transformative change.
As a country wrestling with an acute demographic challenge:
The demographic landscape in Portugal is characterized by a significant decline in the youth population, with a ratio of approximately 60,000 young people to 200,000 older individuals compared to 50 years ago.
Young people face challenges related to voice, employment, pensions, and housing, resulting in perceived intergenerational unfairness.
But many grandparents of today's youth had limited education to only seven years due to the dictatorship, complicating the narrative of intergenerational justice.
As an examplar for the Far Right:
The far-right party Chega has seen a dramatic increase in parliamentary representation, growing from one seat to 23% within a single five-year cycle.
Observations from former CIA colleagues indicate that far-right groups in the U.S. are referencing Portugal's past dictator, Salazar, as a model of benevolent authoritarianism.
Introducing the Intergenerational Fairness Assessment
Portugal ultimately faces, like many other countries, a fork in the road between democratic renewal or rejection - a choice that comes not insignificantly from representative democracy’s failure to address the intergenerational tensions in policymaking or to build coalitions for making effective long-term policies.
A significant step in SOIF’s journey in exploring the incentives that might genuinely make a difference has been our collaboration with the Gulbenkian Foundation - in particular to develop an intergenerational fairness assessment tool. Further exploration of the intergenerational fairness as a critical feature in 2020s policy landscape, of the importance of assessment in particular, of an introduction to this tool and its implications will be discussed in subsequent posts.
Link to Loom
https://loom.com/share/663879641a494baf9ba329e4182dbc04?src=composer